RUPIAH IS PREDICTED STILL INFLUENCE OF TURKEY CRISIS

Economic policy in Turkey is like testing a developing economy in the midst of a tightening of the monetary system by a number of major world central banks.

Because the formation of the value of the can be a factor that can increase the level of underdevelopment.

Not responsible, the value of IRA eroded by more than 40% at the beginning of the week's trade, after the US imposed economic sanctions on two Turkish officials at the ministerial level. The US dollar index also paid its highest level during the year (year-to-date) at 96.73 levels on Tuesday (14/8).

Unfortunately, the economic turmoil in Turkey actually happens when major world central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), are moving from the crisis point to policy normalization.

In fact, the tightening flow. The Fed will raise interest rates three more times in 2019 and the ECB will start hoisting interest rates after the summer.

In addition, both the Fed and the ECB have also issued financial financial scales. So far, the Fed no longer issues a decision that will trigger programs that will damage the mandatory purchase program by the end of the year.

For this reason, Jim Reid, Head of Global Credit Strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, assesses the problem in Turkey may be the key to a global economy that can be used in the near future of the central bank in the monetary tightening cycle.

"The financial crisis always occurs in the tightening cycle by the Fed, adding to the high amount of money," he said, as quoted by Bloomberg, Sunday (8/19).

Thus, he explained, the tightening measures from central banks in developed countries and economic turmoil from developing countries like that can indeed be done on global financial markets. Because the flow of capital will increasingly flow to developed countries.

Developing countries that are too dependent on 'cheap' debt from the past, quantitative easing also appears to be the most vulnerable, but if those countries do not improve their economic fundamentals.

"[But] there are still opportunities for emerging markets in the world," said Alberto Gallo, financial manager at Algebris Investment in London.

The International Finance Institute (IIF) argues for households, governments, corporations and the financial sector in 30 developing countries to 211% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the beginning of this year only 143% at the end of 2008.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that public debt in developing markets and economic countries averages 50% of GDP, or the highest since the crisis in the 1980s. In fact, the debt level of one fifth of the country's group reaches 70% of GDP.

In addition, the Bank for International Settlements said that corporate liabilities denominated in US dollars alone reached US $ 3.7 trillion in emerging markets, or had doubled since 2010.

With these data, Bloomberg Economics assessed Turkey, Argentina, Colombia, South Africa and Mexico as the most vulnerable countries left by investors during this period.