成長率、マイナス5・2%に下方修正　95年度以降最低

Growth rate revised, it goes downward to minus 5.2%

On the 18th, the government agreed that the real economic growth rate in 2020 will be minus 5.2% compared to the previous year. It is the lowest since 1995, which is comparable, and is the second consecutive year of negative growth, following the negative 0.3% in FY2019. On the other hand, in FY2009, due to the reaction to the decline in the previous year and the effect of large-scale economic measures, the highest increase of 4.0% since FY1995 is expected.

The government shows the outlook for growth rate twice a year. For FY2008, it was minus 4.5% as of July, but it has been revised downward. The "third wave" of Corona's scourge reflected the slow recovery of gross domestic product (GDP), especially for personal consumption. This is the second consecutive year of negative growth since the Lehman shock in 2008 and 2009.

On the other hand, the outlook for FY2009 has been revised upward from the previous 3.4%. The economic measures decided on the 8th are expected to be supported by public spending and stimulate private demand, and "it is expected that the economy will return to the pre-corona level by the end of FY2009."

However, the government's forecast is more optimistic than in the private sector. The forecast average of 35 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research on the 15th is minus 5.37% in FY2008 and +3.42% in FY2009. There are many views that the time when GDP will recover to the pre-corona level will be after FY2010.

Source: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNDL35G4NDKULFA01Q.html