GDP growing up, record, but half return, slowing down on third wave

GDP for the July-September quarter exceeded most private-sector expectations and reached record growth rates. However, there is a strong aspect of autonomous repulsion from the previous term, when economic activity stopped due to the state of emergency and fell into the worst negative growth after the war. There were some negative factors such as unseasonable summer weather and refraining from moving the tray due to the "second wave" of corona infection, but the drop just before was so great that it did not surface.

In fact, in terms of real GDP, the annual equivalent is about 508 trillion yen in the July-September period. The increase is just over half of what was lost in the April-June quarter. Moreover, it is hard to say that the "V-shaped recovery" was achieved from the corona crisis, as the sharp decrease in imports apparently pushed up the figures.

Moreover, recovery is likely to slow down at once in the future. According to the forecast average of 34 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research on the 11th, the real growth rate for the October-December period is 4.04%. It is expected to drop to the 1-2% level after the beginning of the year, and it is expected that GDP will return to the pre-corona level in the next few years.

The weight is still the corona. In Europe and the United States, the number of infected people is increasing rapidly, and some countries are beginning to re-enter " lockdown " with strict restrictions on going out . Japan is also becoming a situation called the "third wave" as the movement of people increases. Expectations for vaccine development are rising, but there is still no prospect of convergence.

In Japan, employment indicators such as the ratio of job offers to applicants and the unemployment rate are gradually deteriorating against the backdrop of declining corporate performance , and bonus reductions are spreading. Consumption and exports, which drove the rapid recovery in the July-September quarter, are at increased risk of declining, and the outlook for the economy is becoming more uncertain.

Source: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNCJ3RRMNC5ULFA00G.html?iref=comtop_7_02