New coronavirus

Associate Professor, University of Tokyo - New corona, continuous contact reduction to 15 Day is necessary even after being release.

In order to suppress the spread of new coronavirus infection, even if the contact between people was reduced by 80% for one month, the number of patients will return to the original level in 15 days if the measures are stopped. It was summarized by Associate Professor of Tokyo University (population genomics) by 24th.

            Professor Ohashi said, "It is important to continue self-restraint in order to prevent the collapse of medical care after May 6, the deadline for declaration of emergency."      

            Associate professor Ohashi assumed that one patient will reach an average of 2.5, and calculated the infection status. According to the calculation, if one patient enters a city with a population of 100,000, the number of patients per day will increase to 50 on the 59th day. At that time, if measures to reduce contact by 80% are started, the number of patients will be halved in about 30 days, but if the measures are stopped and the normal contact situation is restored, the number will increase to 50 again in 15 days.

            On the other hand, after taking measures to reduce contact by 80% for 30 days, if you continue to reduce contact by 70%, you can continue to reduce the number of infected people.

Source: http://shorturl.at/vyFU8